Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 6% over the past week, recovering somewhat from two consecutive weeks of double-digit losses to hover around the $65,000 region, with research and brokerage firm K33 pointing to a new all-time high in long-term holders as a sign that the bear market may be nearing an end.

In K33's latest market report, Head of Research Vetle Lunde said a defining feature of the 2024-25 cycle was the large volume of older coins being reactivated and likely sold as prices reached record highs, whereas 2026 has seen exceptionally low reactivation of coins aged two years or more, with only 218,421 BTC reactivated by June 6, indicative of much weaker onchain selling pressure.

"The only year to experience lower reactivation of old supply by June 6 was 2012, when only 70,600 BTC aged 2 years or more had been reactivated by that date," Lunde said. "In contrast, 1.18m BTC had been reactivated by June 6, 2024, highlighting the stark difference in onchain selling pressure in 2026 compared to the past two years."

The decline in old coin activity suggests long-term holders are less motivated to sell and patient participants are steadily absorbing supply, providing another sign that the bear market may be coming to an end, Lunde said. "Supporting this view, 79% of BTC's circulating supply is now held by long-term holders, a new all-time high that reflects continued accumulation and the gradual shift toward a more constructive market environment."

It aligns with a pattern observed in every bitcoin bear market, where an increasing share of the circulating supply ends up in the hands of long-term holders as the market approaches its trough, per K33.

Last week, Lunde noted that 50% of bitcoin's circulating supply is underwater, a level historically only reached within weeks of major bear market bottoms, but often after one final leg lower.

In Tuesday's report, Lunde highlighted that market conditions have since stabilized, with exchange-traded fund outflows that were a key source of recent weakness having eased. Trading activity has also fallen back toward yearly lows — a pattern often seen during late-stage bitcoin bear markets, he said.

However, not all analysts are as optimistic, with Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex recently warning that ETF flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand still fall short of confirming a lasting market reversal, and some calls for bitcoin dropping as low as $30,000.

Attention turns to FOMC

After a week that saw the biggest IPO in history as SpaceX rose to a value of $2.5 trillion after a 28% gain in its first two trading days, something that may have impacted recent crypto liquidity, and the U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement, Lunde said attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC meeting, the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Rates are expected to remain unchanged despite markets still pricing in the possibility of rate hikes later this year, according to Lunde.

"With BTC's 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 near 0.6, any shift in Fed communication could have an outsized impact on BTC, which tends to be particularly sensitive to macro developments during bear markets," Lunde said.