While the stablecoin yield issue remains a key sticking point, there are several other hurdles to enactment of the crypto bill, or the Clarity Act, according to investment bank TD Cowen.

First is the lack of commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC is currently operating with just one commissioner, Chair Michael Selig, making it difficult for lawmakers to assign it expanded responsibilities under the crypto bill, Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, said in a note. While this is a solvable issue, Seiberg said nominating and confirming additional commissioners could take months. That means the process would need to start in the next four to six weeks, as he sees a late July deadline for action on the Clarity Act, ahead of the August congressional recess.

The second issue is prediction markets. Seiberg said there is a growing chance that lawmakers will try to fold the regulation of prediction markets into the Clarity Act. The issue goes beyond sports betting and includes insider trading concerns and potential conflicts tied to President Donald Trump's family. "Just the offering on a prediction markets amendment could drive Democrats away from the bill," Seiberg said.

The third issue is the Trump family-linked World Liberty Financial crypto project. It has remained in headlines, most recently over restrictions preventing early investors from selling tokens until after Trump’s term ends. Seiberg said continued attention on such issues could make it harder for Democrats to back the crypto bill.

Iran's reported acceptance of crypto payments could add further pressure. Iran is said to have discussed requiring ships to pay tolls in crypto to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which could increase focus on anti-money laundering and Bank Secrecy Act provisions in the crypto bill, Seiberg said. "For instance, we could see a Democrat offer an amendment in response that becomes politically difficult to stop even if crypto platforms see it as poison pill designed to kill the bill," he wrote.

Seiberg also flagged the Credit Card Competition Act as another obstacle. He said Senators Dick Durbin and Roger Marshall are expected to push to include that act in the crypto bill. "We do not expect it to pass though if we are wrong it could sink the bill," Seiberg said.

Stablecoin yield issue

Meanwhile, the stablecoin yield issue continues to be a key hurdle. On Tuesday, Senator Thom Tillis told Politico that the Senate Banking Committee is unlikely to vote on the Clarity Act until May at the earliest. He also said the text of a proposed compromise on stablecoin yield will likely only be released shortly before the markup.

That compromise is expected to prohibit platforms from offering yield on stablecoins held on their services, while allowing rewards when stablecoins are used for payments, Seiberg noted. However, Tillis said the language could still change based on feedback.

The delay itself is not unusual and does not put the bill out of reach for this Congress, Seiberg said in a separate note. "It is why we would not read anything into this development. It just reflects how Washington works," he said.

One source familiar with the stablecoin yield discussions accused banks of not acting in good faith.

"... the crypto industry has been negotiating in good faith for months and remain at the table, but the banks seem intent on stalling (and possibly killing) this legislation," the person told The Block. "It's critical we get a markup done and move this legislation through Congress and get it to the President's desk."

Seiberg reiterated that passing the bill will likely require personal involvement from Trump, along with compromises that can receive bipartisan support and clear the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

"That is a challenge but not one that is impossible. It is why enactment remains possible even though it is not our base case," Seiberg wrote.

Last month, Seiberg said he is "increasingly pessimistic" and sees only a one-in-three chance of the crypto bill passing this year. Earlier, he said the bill could be delayed to 2027, with final rules potentially taking effect in 2029 if hurdles are not resolved this year.

Earlier Wednesday, Galaxy Digital said the odds of the bill's passage this year are roughly 50-50. "Uncertainty stems not from any single issue but from the number of unresolved questions that must be settled, in sequence, under severe time pressure," the firm said.