Bitcoin mining economics have "worsened" this year, with the cryptocurrency trading below its estimated production cost for five straight months and putting growing pressure on miners, according to JPMorgan analysts.

Bitcoin's hashrate (or the total computational power) and mining difficulty have become noticeably more responsive to bitcoin price movements this year, the JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in a report. Over the past six months, the beta of mining difficulty to bitcoin prices has risen to 0.62, suggesting that a larger share of miners are now operating close to breakeven and are more likely to switch machines on or off as prices change, the analysts said.

"When bitcoin trades below its production cost, higher-cost miners power down, the hashrate declines, and difficulty adjusts lower. This pattern was evident in the second week of June, when difficulty fell 10%, the second drawdown of that magnitude so far this year (the previous drawdown took place last January)," the analysts said.

Bitcoin's current estimated production cost is $78,000

JPMorgan's current estimated production cost of bitcoin (BTC) is about $78,000, while bitcoin is currently trading around $62,500. The analysts said about 20% of bitcoin miners are now estimated to be unprofitable, citing CoinShares' first-quarter 2026 mining report. In response, publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin during the first quarter alone to fund operating expenses, exceeding their combined sales for all of 2025, the analysts said, citing TheEnergyMag data.

Looking ahead, the analysts expect hashrate sensitivity to bitcoin prices to remain elevated and see larger and more frequent mining difficulty adjustments for as long as bitcoin remains well below its production cost, which is currently estimated at about $78,000.

The JPMorgan analysts recently shifted to a cautious stance on digital assets from their earlier "overweight" and "positive" view for 2026. They said a stronger second half for crypto would likely require digital asset treasury companies, such as Michael Saylor's Strategy, to provide greater clarity on meeting rising dividend obligations, potentially by rebuilding dollar reserve funds, and for U.S. crypto market structure legislation to pass, an outcome they currently assign less than a 50% probability.

Despite the cautious outlook, the analysts said current weak market sentiment could ultimately prove "a bullish contrarian signal going forward."

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